do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

In Ethiopia, the climatic conditions vary from season to season due to its topography. Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. Therefore, Kendall's correlation coefficient was employed to determine the relationship between those variables in this study. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< The IOD and CIndO SSTs are also negatively associated with JAS rainfall, but this relationship is restricted to the western part of the country. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. such as temperature zone, rainfall . Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. Mekele's annual temperatures are also relatively consistent, with April, May, and June being the hottest months. } 0 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP (2013) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the state of the Art? Projected change in the intensity (mm/day) of rainfall on a . Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:12391249. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. As we described in Sects. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. 0000066139 00000 n Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. Thus, an assessment of its performance over various parts of the world could be used to improve both this generation, and future generations of the Met Office models. Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, Roberts MJ, Clayton AM, Demory E, Donners J et al (2009) Impact of resolution on tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. In this study, we also used two coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Met Office Hadley Centre to assess their performance to simulate the Ethiopian rainfall climatology and its association with SSTs (Collins et al. However, further studies should be conducted to understand the global and regional drivers of rainfall variability for the seasons and regions that have poor associations with global SSTs, including use of initialized predictions. color: #FFFFFF; The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. 2014a, b). Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. Ethiopia has a high central plateau that varies from 1,290 to 3,000 m (4,232 to 9,843 ft) above sea level, with the highest mountain reaching 4,533 . The data period used for this purpose was 41years (19551995). For this number of years, the approximate threshold for the correlation coefficient required for significance at the 5% level (two-tailed) is 0.30. Int J Climatol 24:973983. 0000007328 00000 n 0000151832 00000 n A quasi-objective method is employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. 0000004598 00000 n The SST indices are computed for the same seasons as the rainfall indices. For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. Mon Weather Rev 131:7494. 0000005891 00000 n The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. Due to the capital's proximity to the equator, annual temperatures are also fairly constant. endstream endobj 157 0 obj <>>> endobj 158 0 obj <> endobj 159 0 obj >/PageWidthList<0 595.276>>>>>>/Resources<>/ExtGState<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/Tabs/W/Thumb 146 0 R/TrimBox[0.0 0.0 595.276 841.89]/Type/Page>> endobj 160 0 obj <> endobj 161 0 obj <> endobj 162 0 obj [/ICCBased 180 0 R] endobj 163 0 obj <> endobj 164 0 obj <> endobj 165 0 obj <> endobj 166 0 obj <>stream The best time to visit Addis is duringthe dry season (November to February). While the amount of annual rainfall and rainy days decreased in the study Regions in the 2080s. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). 0000127516 00000 n (2009b). 2). f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. Current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth's water cycle, increasing evaporation. Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. This section focuses on these two seasons and regions. The Northern part of . Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. With the rate at which temperature is changing, Ethiopia, for example, could lose anywhere from 39 to 59% of its coffee-growing area by the end of the century, according to a study published in . & Bewket, W. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation. Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . It is clear that interannual rainfall variability in these two regions is strongly influenced by the SSTs anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans. The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. They found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. 3b). The views expressed are not necessarily those of DFID. The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. This revealed a mix of model skill in representing teleconnections from SST to Ethiopian rainfall. This is also a prime time for bird watching. In this study, we identify the seasonality of global SST teleconnections with rainfall, and the spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. The SST-to-rainfall associations for the MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) seasons, which are the main and secondary rainfall seasons over southern Ethiopia, respectively, are much less well understood. December 2020. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al analysis along the Rift Valley cli- is. The dynamics of global warming caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing trends of temperature in East Africa. Located in the north of the country, Mekele is the capital of the Tigray region. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). On the other hand, over the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea), the positive SST association with ON Rainfall that is simulated by HadGEM2 is nonexistent in the observations (Fig. 2014). (a) AEZ modelling methodology. To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were used. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. The mean maximum. MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. The cold, moist temperate zone covers the Afro-alpine areas on the highest plateaus between 3,200 and 3,500 m; average temperatures are below 10C and annual rainfall averages less than 800 mm. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. 0000004710 00000 n These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. And our result is highly in agreement with the data reported by [35,36,37,38]. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. All these studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood. 0000089621 00000 n Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Even though scientists have no doubt that climate is warming, natural climate variability will always occur. Int J Climatol 33:249263. 0000003134 00000 n 0000001997 00000 n Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . Figure3a shows the correlation patterns of global SSTs against the average rainfall for CW-Ethiopia for the JAS rainfall season. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. The interaction between human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have been continued on population growth against agricultural development. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. trailer J Climate 22:25412556. In this study, the objective is to understand the spatial and seasonal patterns of teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs using observed rainfall and SST data. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. Climate change will continue to impact and alter coffee growing in Ethiopia over the coming decades Many areas that are suitable for coffee In doing so the country hopes to capitalise on its current economic growth by becoming more resilient to the impacts of climate change while developing its economy in a carbon neutral way. 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. Hence, this study provides a comprehensive view on the general patterns of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across both time and space for Ethiopia. Currently, the demand for climate model data is growing due to this increasing interest in climate information (Hewitt et al. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x, Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Mayer DA, Cid-Serrano L (1999) How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature? Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and c NE-Ethiopia.